I'd list it now and don't drop your price unless you don't get any responses within a month or two. This is the time when people start to get the itch, once the first few nice days hit, people start to really look.
I think your on the money as far as when do people buy, but that's leaving out as mentioned some get the itch earlier and if you have it for sale you could sell it now. how much more would it cost to have an add for a couple of months more. I sold mine in cycletrader.com it covers many states as apposed to being just local. it's online and in print. did the whole add online. you'll want a good digital picture.