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Lack of supply doesn't always mean increasing demand, especially if decreasing demand is what drives the situation.
Might have to dig deep for that Arlen Ness Live To Ride 1% chrome skull headlamp bezel screw hole cover but pretty sure I'll survive. Shovels and Evos have been out of production for a very long time and parts (that matter) are still available. In 10 more years I may not be able to get that 88" EVO stroker crank kit but the parts to keep me riding arent going away soon even if HD folds.
 

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BTW, when Harley goes under, so will the aftermarket geared toward Harley products.
What about that whole supply and demand thing?


Lack of supply doesn't always mean increasing demand, especially if decreasing demand is what drives the situation.
I was talking about the aftermarket supply business.
Don't you think that they will always be there long after Harley tanks?
 

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I was talking about the aftermarket supply business.
Don't you think that they will always be there long after Harley tanks?
No I don't. Harley (at least as we know it) will eventually tank because of lack of interest and outlawing of internal combustion engines. Those exact same factors will make it a short time after Harley goes that the aftermarket goes too.

We've already seen the time where supply surpassed the demand for heavyweight Harley Davidson motorcycles. H-D keeps selling less and less new bikes each year because there is such a large supply of older, low mileage bikes that many people will buy used rather than put out big $$ for a new bike. Most of the new bike sales right now are likely the last or next to last purchase those existing customers will make and they are buying new because, well, why not? You can't take it with you. There just isn't a big enough crop of new buyers coming along to support the business for many more years. If you have HOG stock, you should have sold it last week. The stock price dropped from $40 on Monday to close at $33 on Tuesday when the 2020 4th Qtr earnings (losses) were announced. That makes 2 negative earnings statements in one year. I think the last time H-D had a negative earnings Qtr was 10 years ago and it wasn't nearly as negative as the 2 in 2020. Unless you bought their stock in 2020 or in 2008 - 2011, you're probably looking at a loss right now that may or may not ever turn around.

Hopefully I'm wrong and folks will run out and buy new motorcycles like crazy this spring/summer, but I'm not putting any money on that bet.
 

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It's probably time to hoard old bikes. I'll sell you mine for what I paid. Hate to see a fellow rider in distress.
 

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HD needs to get into the 21st century. they need to use the internet. Sell parts...I need parts and when I go to the local shop the desk jockey opens up the J&P or the Dennis Kirk catalog. F##K sake?
 

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Broom the t-shirts and boutique chrome trinkets and baubles and what does Harley offer anyhow? Annual event with a live band and free chili? Rebuilt my Evo and none of it came from HD. They dont make their **** anyhow. It's either Chinese parts or rebranded from the REAL manufacturers. I doubt HD owns a cam grinder.
 

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No not today but still evening woods as you like to say , please don’t be such a douche
That wasn't even being close to being a douche. You really need to grow some balls.

Since subtle doesn't seem to work with the English as a second language crowd, WTF do either of you posts even mean? What do I like to say and when have I said it?
 
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Personally I don't plan on buying another bike, I like the one I have...so I don't really care one way or the other.
 

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No I don't. Harley (at least as we know it) will eventually tank because of lack of interest and outlawing of internal combustion engines. Those exact same factors will make it a short time after Harley goes that the aftermarket goes too.

We've already seen the time where supply surpassed the demand for heavyweight Harley Davidson motorcycles. H-D keeps selling less and less new bikes each year because there is such a large supply of older, low mileage bikes that many people will buy used rather than put out big $$ for a new bike. Most of the new bike sales right now are likely the last or next to last purchase those existing customers will make and they are buying new because, well, why not? You can't take it with you. There just isn't a big enough crop of new buyers coming along to support the business for many more years. If you have HOG stock, you should have sold it last week. The stock price dropped from $40 on Monday to close at $33 on Tuesday when the 2020 4th Qtr earnings (losses) were announced. That makes 2 negative earnings statements in one year. I think the last time H-D had a negative earnings Qtr was 10 years ago and it wasn't nearly as negative as the 2 in 2020. Unless you bought their stock in 2020 or in 2008 - 2011, you're probably looking at a loss right now that may or may not ever turn around.

Hopefully I'm wrong and folks will run out and buy new motorcycles like crazy this spring/summer, but I'm not putting any money on that bet.
Not worried about it , but they are going to tank
 

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There just isn't a big enough crop of new buyers coming along to support the business for many more years.
Recent activities around my home have me thinking about what G-Man said. But I might expand his statement pertaining to new bike sales to the whole motorcycle business as we know it today.

Wife and I are trying to downsize so I'm doing some "basement archaeology", uncovering "stuff" that hasn't seen the light of day in decades. We're talking things that were once treasured in my family as heirlooms, or at least very valuable, because they cost a lot to buy back in the 60's and before. Practicality is taking over and I'm trying to move this stuff out, and I'm discovering that things that were once valuable, aren't so much anymore. British silver tea service, antique furniture, bone china, crystal glassware, sterling flatware. Pretty much anything short of just giving it away would be fine, but no interest. As I contact various antique dealers, estate sale folks, or appraisers, I keep hearing how the Baby Boomers have accumulated all this stuff, thinking it was "special" but not to the the generations past them. Sales of this type of stuff have tanked. I can get past the family attachment but have a hard time thinking of dumping a silver tea service or nice antiques at Goodwill. I even read an article in Forbes about things that Baby Boomers think their kids will want to inherit, but the younger people don't want. It was like describing my current experience.

So I wonder if that's what's on the horizon for HD. What was very desirable for Baby Boomers has little to no appeal to the generations since them. My parents would be shocked to see how how their valuables are viewed today. If they were still around, they just couldn't/wouldn't believe it. How indifferent the market for that stuff has become. After all, it was desirable for their whole lives. Maybe that's what's in store for current HD owners. We'll have to park the bikes one day due to age and either then or when we're looking up at the grass and our descendants inherit our bikes, those children and grandchildren will wonder what to do with Granddad's Harley that they don't want, and nobody else does, either. Is that how it will turn out? Will they find no interest in what we once prized? Just food for thought but as Dylan said, "The times, they are a-changin'".
 

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Recent activities around my home have me thinking about what G-Man said. But I might expand his statement pertaining to new bike sales to the whole motorcycle business as we know it today.

Wife and I are trying to downsize so I'm doing some "basement archaeology", uncovering "stuff" that hasn't seen the light of day in decades. We're talking things that were once treasured in my family as heirlooms, or at least very valuable, because they cost a lot to buy back in the 60's and before. Practicality is taking over and I'm trying to move this stuff out, and I'm discovering that things that were once valuable, aren't so much anymore. British silver tea service, antique furniture, bone china, crystal glassware, sterling flatware. Pretty much anything short of just giving it away would be fine, but no interest. As I contact various antique dealers, estate sale folks, or appraisers, I keep hearing how the Baby Boomers have accumulated all this stuff, thinking it was "special" but not to the the generations past them. Sales of this type of stuff have tanked. I can get past the family attachment but have a hard time thinking of dumping a silver tea service or nice antiques at Goodwill. I even read an article in Forbes about things that Baby Boomers think their kids will want to inherit, but the younger people don't want. It was like describing my current experience.

So I wonder if that's what's on the horizon for HD. What was very desirable for Baby Boomers has little to no appeal to the generations since them. My parents would be shocked to see how how their valuables are viewed today. If they were still around, they just couldn't/wouldn't believe it. How indifferent the market for that stuff has become. After all, it was desirable for their whole lives. Maybe that's what's in store for current HD owners. We'll have to park the bikes one day due to age and either then or when we're looking up at the grass and our descendants inherit our bikes, those children and grandchildren will wonder what to do with Granddad's Harley that they don't want, and nobody else does, either. Is that how it will turn out? Will they find no interest in what we once prized? Just food for thought but as Dylan said, "The times, they are a-changin'".
The well stated comments about everything that matters to us, having zero value to the coming generations is scary truth. I remember listening to my grandfather speak about life and values, and holy crap, would he be hating the world today ! Things are changing so fast, and everything important seems lost.. What has value to todays youth, is so much different than how I was raised to see things. There surely are some good things in the world, but what a sacrifice. History is important, so why try to hide it, or change it. Why apply the ways of some to all ? Regarding gas burning Harleys, is a major part of the organizations, that have people from all walks of life. Alot of heavily funded people.. I dont think they will lay down too easily.. As a child the only Hero I really ever had was my father, however watching his friends on their Harleys, was just the way it was supposed to be.. That was when I knew riding was for me.. I always thought that living to and beyond 100 would be great, but if everything that makes me who I am and how I love feeling, was banned whats the use ? Maybe becoming senile will help with blocking out all the bull**** !
 

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Our generation grew up with the internal combustion engine center-point in our lives.
That’s about to change.
Look around your house and garage and realize it will be viewed as a museum in another generation or two. Bold new world.
Will Harley survive? Probably
Will they be the Harley we know? Probably not.
 

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No I don't. Harley (at least as we know it) will eventually tank because of lack of interest and outlawing of internal combustion engines. Those exact same factors will make it a short time after Harley goes that the aftermarket goes too.

We've already seen the time where supply surpassed the demand for heavyweight Harley Davidson motorcycles. H-D keeps selling less and less new bikes each year because there is such a large supply of older, low mileage bikes that many people will buy used rather than put out big $$ for a new bike. Most of the new bike sales right now are likely the last or next to last purchase those existing customers will make and they are buying new because, well, why not? You can't take it with you. There just isn't a big enough crop of new buyers coming along to support the business for many more years. If you have HOG stock, you should have sold it last week. The stock price dropped from $40 on Monday to close at $33 on Tuesday when the 2020 4th Qtr earnings (losses) were announced. That makes 2 negative earnings statements in one year. I think the last time H-D had a negative earnings Qtr was 10 years ago and it wasn't nearly as negative as the 2 in 2020. Unless you bought their stock in 2020 or in 2008 - 2011, you're probably looking at a loss right now that may or may not ever turn around.

Hopefully I'm wrong and folks will run out and buy new motorcycles like crazy this spring/summer, but I'm not putting any money on that bet.
Yup---when I bought my '17 Limited, it was in part because I knew my income potential was waining and I figured it may be my last purchase of a bike I could count on to last while meeting my needs/desires.
 

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Will they survive?
AT this point they have to finally tumble to the point of "who are they going to sell to?"
Willey had them going in the right direction. When he retired they threw the V rod out.
The market is so flooded as of right now one can buy a RK for way under 4K.
I have seen a few for 2500.
Do I think they will go up at some point , yes.
But will HD be there?
The flat short answer is positively no.
They did not catch the transition to the modern skinny jean crowd likes/ dislikes.
To waffle a bit here,- for HD to survive they will have to invent a whole new concept in electric bikes as the rest has been
pretty well covered.
I do doubt HD has any real insight into channeling N. Tesla
 

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There are so many aftermarket companies for parts, but that could be a big market for them, if they were price competitive. Funny thought there.. They would have to sell the parts to fix their own failures. Harley Davidson has been such a part of American history, that thinking of it ending, is like losing family..
 
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