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Sell! Sell! Sell!!
 

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I am sure if you look at market trends, you will see at the end of every model year, sales slow a little in anticipation of the next model year. That is why the car dealers have all these crazy marketing things this time of year. I am sure people are holding off on buying an 07 until they see the changes in the 08's.
 

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Shaw_2112 said:
Sell! Sell! Sell!!
I count on guys like you!
Loosing about a third of share value thus far??
I'd thinking BUY! BUY! BUY!


May, when it started edging over again would have been a reasonable time to bail - but at this point unless you got in real low I'd hold or buy.
 

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toProFile said:
I count on guys like you!
Loosing about a third of share value thus far??
I'd thinking BUY! BUY! BUY!


May, when it started edging over again would have been a reasonable time to bail - but at this point unless you got in real low I'd hold or buy.
my point exactly, sell some more so the stock goes even lower and I can pick it up cheap!
 

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read the charts before you act ... then HOLD

HOG has been a year long down turn from a high at the end of last November of $ 75 (more or less) to today at $ 49.09. So while the trading today produced a 9% drop in price the real story is the 33% drop in less than a year.

The current dividend levels 1.82% combined with the 33% decline in price makes HOG a poor choice from many viewpoints. HOG boast a large market share in a growing market (bike sales in the US are growing.) Perhaps the mystique that has carried Harley over these last 20 years through name recognition and customer loyalty is simply not enough as competitors market share outgrows HOG.

However the fact remains that the last twelve months HOG had jumped from a five year price average in the low $ 50 to the $ 75 price per share of last November. Now at $ 49.09 the question one should seek to answer is this more in line with HOG's value or is it truly an indication of a dwindling company profit line? Perhaps the hold mode is more prudent for those who bought in the 5 year price range of $ 50 plus.
 

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I'm sure that the big economy picture is probably driving this downturn in sales more so than other factors. And I'm not sure how many investors read motorcycle rags like I do, but H-D has gotten some pretty bad press in those the last couple of months over the 96-inch engine heat issues, no more carb bikes in the line, EPA restrictions driving MoCo manufacturing decisions, etc. Quite frankly, I'm not sure I would buy a new Big Twin from the 2007 or 2008 lines, nor a new Sporty, until I saw what H-D comes up with for 2009.
 

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What's Next from the MoCo

Looks like it will be water cooled bikes that sound like sewing machines. I'm not crazy about the new lineup. I like some of the new features, but the reality is that with fly-by-wire, ABS and a few other things, self-service is getting harder. A large part of the ownership experience for me is being able to do things myself. There's less that the average owner can maintain on the newer bikes than ever before.

That said, for most people, motorcycles are a luxury, and therefore at risk during an economic downturn. In many places across the country the housing market is in the tank, so lower sales of a luxury item shouldn't be surprising.
 

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I think that like with every thing else there are high points and low points and this low point is an oppertunity to get on board before it goes back up.
In 1981 I lost $100,007 in 4 months on my new house, in 2004 I sold that house for a $250,000 profit and the same with my rental.
So this is the time to buy in the buyers market and just hold on until it gets good again.
So buy a couple nice bikes, cars and atleast 1 house and just sit back and wait.
It's all good.

Big Joe
 

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trhoton said:
That said, for most people, motorcycles are a luxury, and therefore at risk during an economic downturn. In many places across the country the housing market is in the tank, so lower sales of a luxury item shouldn't be surprising.
Good observation. A lot of people were getting equity loans to buy their Harleys. That $$ is drying up fast as house prices fall and money gets tight. Then, there are all those house builders and construction guys who are a core demographic for Harleys who are either losing their jobs or are getting conservative about how much money they spend on luxury items. I'll bet bass boat sales are dropping, too. Let's hope the trend doesn't continue. On the plus side, if you want a new or used Harley, prices may cool off and some deals will be available.
 

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Nice Fatty

Hey Big Joe - great picture. I love the rake on the Fat Boy.

Nice work.

Let's hope the economy picks up again soon and our favorite hobby and motor company stay strong.
 

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RB Jones said:
Good observation. A lot of people were getting equity loans to buy their Harleys. That $$ is drying up fast as house prices fall and money gets tight. Then, there are all those house builders and construction guys who are a core demographic for Harleys who are either losing their jobs or are getting conservative about how much money they spend on luxury items. I'll bet bass boat sales are dropping, too. Let's hope the trend doesn't continue. On the plus side, if you want a new or used Harley, prices may cool off and some deals will be available.
I think we have another year of slow down but 2009 it will all pick back up.
In the Prescott area this slow down is hitting quite afew people and most of them are trying to cut the monthly overhead and the toys are first to go.
Like you said let's hope it turns around before to long and we all get back to playing with our toy's!!!
Big Joe.
 

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trhoton said:
Hey Big Joe - great picture. I love the rake on the Fat Boy.

Nice work.

Let's hope the economy picks up again soon and our favorite hobby and motor company stay strong.
Thank's
And yes I hope it comes back around real soon, but I am pretty bumbed about Joe Gibbs racing going to TOYOTA:thumbsdn:
 
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