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Old 10-21-2012, 04:33 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Putting the Pollsters to the test

With just about 2 weeks to go till the election...let's see how the pollsters do.

I will skip the silly polls and just stick with the polls of "likely voters" because those are the only people that matter in the end. (VOTE!)

Gallup as of today:
Romney: 52 - Obama 45 - Other or Undecided: 3
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/el...ma-romney.aspx

Rasmussen as of today:
Romney: 49 - Obama: 47 - Other or Undecided: 3
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

WSJ/NBC as of today:
Romney: 47 - Obama: 47 - Other or Undecided 6
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2...-now-tied?lite

In general there is a +/- 3% error in any poll, but the 7-day rolling average that Gallup uses is supposed to iron out that errors.

Real Clear Politics uses a sample of numerous polls, some of them biased toward one party or the other...and averages them out.
That has it a dead heat at 47-47.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

As I have said many times, I'll put my bet on Gallup. Although the dems are up in arms about the current wide gap, I believe Gallup is the cream of the crop. Over the next two weeks, we can watch the polls and then come election day...declare who got it right.

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Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

- Mark Twain's Own Autobiography: The Chapters from the North American Review
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Old 10-22-2012, 04:29 AM   #2 (permalink)
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or, we could throw chicken bones.
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Old 10-22-2012, 10:15 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Jeez since the polls show Rommy even or up, I don't hear the media conspiracy BS anymore. Imagine that!
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Old 10-22-2012, 10:28 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by compressor#v View Post
Jeez since the polls show Rommy even or up, I don't hear the media conspiracy BS anymore. Imagine that!
I guess you haven't been paying attention!
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Old 10-22-2012, 10:38 AM   #5 (permalink)
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I guess you haven't been paying attention!
I'll put it this way, I haven't been paying attention the the pundits.
Either side.
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Old 10-22-2012, 10:57 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by compressor#v View Post
Jeez since the polls show Rommy even or up, I don't hear the media conspiracy BS anymore. Imagine that!
Even if Romney wins (which seems likely to me) the BS will not stop, it will just move to a slightly different topic.

Some people ain't happy unless they ain't happy.
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Old 10-22-2012, 10:57 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Jeez since the polls show Rommy even or up, I don't hear the media conspiracy BS anymore. Imagine that!
Boy, isn't that the truth. When the polls suggested The One was leading it was a left wing conspiracy and polls were useless. The level of caterwauling was deafening. Now, that Romney is leading I suppose they are valid and honorable.Never ceases to amaze me.

But, gas is going down, so despite the fact that Obama can do nothing right and is an incapable clown, he's still able to conspire to lower gas prices right before the election. Better than Bush I'd say, because when gas skyrocketed in 2008 Bush had nothing to do with it, but The One controls all.

On Danny Boy's original post, the gross vote count polls are not that relevant (unfortunately), it's a matter of electoral votes. But, if Gallup is correct, a differential that large should put Mittens over the top.

Let's just hope Mittens does better with the foreign policy debate this evening than he did with his late summer world tour.
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Old 10-22-2012, 11:36 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Even if Romney wins (which seems likely to me) the BS will not stop, it will just move to a slightly different topic.
Some people ain't happy unless they ain't happy.
If Romney wins I don't think the MSM will rag on him as much as FOX has ragged on Obama.
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Old 10-22-2012, 12:55 PM   #9 (permalink)
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If Romney wins I don't think the MSM will rag on him as much as FOX has ragged on Obama.
I agree, but I'm sure you'll get hammered for this blasphemy. Time, as in all things, will tell if your blasphemy becomes true.
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Naturally, the common people don't want war, neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But the people can be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for their lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger.

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Old 10-22-2012, 02:19 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Rasmussen is the most accurate and is well within the margin of error. This race is a dead heat.

Get out and vote, your vote will count.
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Old 10-22-2012, 02:22 PM   #11 (permalink)
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The only poll that matters will be taken on Nov. 6th.
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Old 10-22-2012, 03:39 PM   #12 (permalink)
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If Romney wins I don't think the MSM will rag on him as much as FOX has ragged on Obama.
Your right. Nixon, Ford, Reagan, H.W. Bush, W. Bush were all media darlings! Didn't it just make you sick how the media fawned all over them? They could do nothing wrong. Even today they can't stop singing their praises!
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Old 10-22-2012, 03:54 PM   #13 (permalink)
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I didn't say not fawn, I said not rag. They didn't rag on those fine Repub Prezes. I do wonder what they will do with all the emotional energy they have built up.
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Old 10-22-2012, 04:15 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by compressor#v View Post
Jeez since the polls show Rommy even or up, I don't hear the media conspiracy BS anymore. Imagine that!
I just posted the results, I didn't comment on their accuracy except to say that I always favor Gallup. The only vote that matters is Nov. 6, I'm just interested to see who comes the closest to getting it right.

This is today's WP/ABC poll. The likely voter sample is somewhat small.
Obama - 49, Romney - 48, Undecided or Other - 3
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...ic-priorities/

It will be interesting to see if the variations between the polls even out after next weekend.
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Old 10-22-2012, 04:32 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Rasmussen is the most accurate and is well within the margin of error. This race is a dead heat.

Get out and vote, your vote will count.
You need to do a little research Squidly. Rasmussen is the laughing stock of polling organizations. They don't even do their own polling, they outsource it to a robo-calling organization and get answers from whoever answers, including seven year olds. Google rasmussen polling methods if you want to read some funny $hit. Rasmussen is nothing more than a Fox propaganda arm. The reason they always are in their margin of error is that they always have by far the largest margin for error. They're a fukin' joke.

Gallup is honest.
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